Miedz Legnica 4–0 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Miedz Legnica

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Wisla Plock

B. Guzdek 88'

N. Mijušković 51' (pen), 15'

M. Mansfeld 31'

10/21/2023

I Liga · Round 12Stadion im. Orła Białego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Miedz Legnica48%

×Draw24%

Wisla Plock27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Miedz LegnicaExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.17

Miedz Legnica

1.64

Wisla Plock

1.17

Miedz Legnica creates 40% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 34 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

1.14

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Miedz Legnica

1.80

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Miedz Legnica

1.14

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Miedz Legnica+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Miedz Legnica ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Miedz Legnica or draw

73%

Miedz Legnica or Wisla Plock

76%

Draw or Wisla Plock

52%

Winning margin

Miedz Legnica wins by 2+

25%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Miedz Legnica 1+ goals

81%

Miedz Legnica 2+ goals

49%

Miedz Legnica 3+ goals

23%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

69%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

33%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Miedz Legnica (draw refunded)

64%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Miedz Legnica at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.14 · 100 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Miedz Legnica attack 1.80 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Miedz Legnica defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Miedz Legnica scores more

48%

level

24%

Wisla Plock scores more

27%

Miedz Legnica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Miedz Legnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

15'

31'

46'

46'

51'

N. MijuškovićPenalty

53'

M. Spremo

57'

F. Hiszpański← M. Spremo

62'

E. Agbor← K. Antonik

62'

K. Drzazga← M. Mansfeld

64'

S. Leśniewski← P. Chrupałła

71'

Iban Salvador← D. Michalik

71'

P. Pierzak← M. Lehaire

71'

S. Strózik← M. Szwoch

77'

79'

79'

88'

Miedz

Wisla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Mansfeld

Manager: R. Bella

62'▲E. Agbor←▼K. Antonik

62'▲K. Drzazga←▼M. Mansfeld

71'▲Iban Salvador←▼D. Michalik

71'▲P. Pierzak←▼M. Lehaire

77'▲B. Guzdek←▼K. Drygas

Miedz Legnica substitutes

AgborDrzazgaSalvadorPierzakGuzdekStanclikAbramowiczLewandowskiBogacz

Manager: M. Saganowski

46'▲K. Janus←▼J. Grič

46'▲N. Srećković←▼Jime

57'▲F. Hiszpański←▼M. Spremo

64'▲S. Leśniewski←▼P. Chrupałła

71'▲S. Strózik←▼M. Szwoch

Wisla Plock substitutes

JanusSrećkovićHiszpańskiLeśniewskiStrózikCzajkaLaskowskiZielińskiCielemęcki

I Liga: Miedz Legnica 4–0 Wisla Plock

Miedz Legnica beat Wisla Plock 4-0 in I Liga on October 21, 2023.

Goals: N. Mijušković (15', 51' pen), M. Mansfeld (31'), B. Guzdek (88').

The match was played at Stadion im. Orła Białego in Legnica.

Miedz Legnica vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Miedz Legnica 4–0 Wisla Plock