Wisla Plock 1–1 Kotwica Kołobrzeg: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

M. Famulak 48'

M. Cywiński 13'

7/21/2024

I Liga · Round 1Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisla Plock61%

×Draw22%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchKotwica Kołobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.95

Wisla Plock

1.96

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.95

Wisla Plock creates 106% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 17 away

1.86

creates per match

0.94

0.97

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.94

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

82%

Wisla Plock or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

78%

Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg

39%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

36%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

86%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

58%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

31%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

61%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

25%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

77%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.94 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

61%

level

22%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

18%

Wisla Plock at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

13'

18'

19'

27'

48'

53'

57'

F. Hiszpański← D. Niepsuj

58'

D. Kocyła← M. Lewandowski

64'

K. Kort← M. Cywiński

67'

Jime← M. Famulak

68'

K. Kukułka← M. Brzozowski

72'

A. Biegański← L. Kreković

72'

Jonathan← F. Kozłowski

76'

J. Szymanski

86'

B. Borowski← Ł. Sekulski

87'

L. Ziętek← T. Wełna

89'

J. Jimenez

Wisla

Kotwica

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Famulak

▼

Sekulski

▼

Lewandows

Manager: M. Misiura

57'▲F. Hiszpański←▼D. Niepsuj

58'▲D. Kocyła←▼M. Lewandowski

67'▲Jime←▼M. Famulak

68'▲K. Kukułka←▼M. Brzozowski

86'▲B. Borowski←▼Ł. Sekulski

Wisla Plock substitutes

HiszpańskiKocyłaJimeKukułkaBorowskiGradeckiNastićWestermarkTomczyk

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

64'▲K. Kort←▼M. Cywiński

72'▲A. Biegański←▼L. Kreković

72'▲Jonathan←▼F. Kozłowski

87'▲L. Ziętek←▼T. Wełna

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KortBiegańskiJonathanZiętekTrojnarskiKrzepiszDampcWitasikMadembo