Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2–0 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wisla Plock

D. Segbé-Azankpo 47'

V. Kostevych 41'

11/30/2024

I Liga · Round 18Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg34%

×Draw28%

Wisla Plock38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.11

Wisla Plock

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

0.76

creates per match

1.21

1.18

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.76

Wisla Plock

1.21

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.18

Wisla Plock

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

62%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Wisla Plock

72%

Draw or Wisla Plock

66%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

14%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

67%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

30%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

10%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

70%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

33%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

47%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.76 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.11

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

34%

level

28%

Wisla Plock scores more

38%

Wisla Plock at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

V. Kostevych

47'

D. Segbé-Azankpo

55'

V. Kostevych

63'

F. Hiszpański← K. Pomorski

63'

P. Krawczyk← D. Kocyła

63'

P. Misiak← M. Haglind-Sangré

68'

L. Sekulski

72'

T. Madembo← V. Kostevych

74'

M. Famulak← D. Kun

75'

J. Jimenez

78'

L. Kosakiewicz

81'

F. Kozłowski← D. Segbé-Azankpo

81'

B. Borowski← K. Kukułka

82'

L. Ziętek← M. Bykowski

85'

D. Pacheco

88'

M. Cywinski

Kotwica

Wisla

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Segbé-Aza

▼

Bykowski

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

72'▲T. Madembo←▼V. Kostevych

81'▲F. Kozłowski←▼D. Segbé-Azankpo

82'▲L. Ziętek←▼M. Bykowski

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

MademboKozłowskiZiętekBiegańskiTrojnarskiKortKrzepiszKrekovićLasek

Manager: M. Misiura

63'▲F. Hiszpański←▼K. Pomorski

63'▲P. Krawczyk←▼D. Kocyła

63'▲P. Misiak←▼M. Haglind-Sangré

74'▲M. Famulak←▼D. Kun

81'▲B. Borowski←▼K. Kukułka

Wisla Plock substitutes

HiszpańskiKrawczykMisiakFamulakBorowskiKuchkoSzymańskiKlonTomczyk