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Wisla Plock vs Górnik Łęczna — Ekstraklasa 2018

Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
3/6/2022EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 24Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisla Plock52%
×Draw25%
Górnik Łęczna23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Plock
1.60
Górnik Łęczna
0.96

Wisla Plock creates 67% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisla Plock
1.26
Górnik Łęczna
0.82

allows per match

Wisla Plock
1.10
Górnik Łęczna
1.94

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw
77%
Wisla Plock or Górnik Łęczna
75%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
48%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+
28%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals
80%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
47%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
22%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
62%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
25%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
70%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 103 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.26 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.60

Górnik Łęczna attack 0.82 + Wisla Plock defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wisla Plock scores more
52%
level
25%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
23%

Wisla Plock at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisla Plock vs Górnik Łęczna

Wisla Plock beat Górnik Łęczna 3-1 in Ekstraklasa on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Płock.