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Górnik Łęczna vs Wisla Plock — I Liga 2018

Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock
8/26/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 6Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Górnik Łęczna43%
×Draw26%
Wisla Plock31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Łęczna
1.41
Wisla Plock
1.16

Górnik Łęczna creates 22% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.35
Wisla Plock
1.21

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna
1.11
Wisla Plock
1.47

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par
Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Wisla Plock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw
69%
Górnik Łęczna or Wisla Plock
74%
Draw or Wisla Plock
57%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
20%
Wisla Plock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
76%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
41%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
17%
Wisla Plock 1+ goals
69%
Wisla Plock 2+ goals
32%
Wisla Plock 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
58%
Wisla Plock (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Wisla Plock defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Wisla Plock attack 1.21 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more
43%
level
26%
Wisla Plock scores more
31%

Górnik Łęczna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Górnik Łęczna 1–0 Wisla Plock

Górnik Łęczna beat Wisla Plock 1-0 in I Liga on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bogdanka Arena in Łęczna.