Wisla Plock 2–1 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Wisla Plock

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Chrobry Głogów

Ł. Sekulski 49', 29' (pen)

P. Szarek 77'

8/3/2024

I Liga · Round 3Orlen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisla Plock54%

×Draw24%

Chrobry Głogów22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla PlockExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Wisla Plock

1.71

Chrobry Głogów

1.00

Wisla Plock creates 71% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 133 away

1.86

creates per match

1.03

0.97

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Wisla Plock

1.86

Chrobry Głogów

1.03

allows per match

Wisla Plock

0.97

Chrobry Głogów

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Plock+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Plock ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Wisla Plock or draw

78%

Wisla Plock or Chrobry Głogów

76%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

46%

Winning margin

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

30%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

82%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

51%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

24%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

63%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

26%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

71%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.97 · 36 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Plock attack 1.86 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.71

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.03 + Wisla Plock defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wisla Plock scores more

54%

level

24%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

22%

Wisla Plock at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

Ł. SekulskiPenalty

39'

49'

51'

60'

60'

68'

70'

A. Szczutowski← P. Mucha

70'

M. Ozimek← B. Biel

72'

D. Niepsuj← F. Hiszpański

77'

P. Szarek

81'

K. Pomorski← Dani Pacheco

81'

M. Lewandowski← Ł. Sekulski

86'

A. Zarówny← M. Bougaidis

89'

M. Famulak← Jime

Wisla

Chrobry

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Sekulski

Manager: M. Misiura

72'▲D. Niepsuj←▼F. Hiszpański

81'▲K. Pomorski←▼Dani Pacheco

81'▲M. Lewandowski←▼Ł. Sekulski

89'▲M. Famulak←▼Jime

Wisla Plock substitutes

NiepsujPomorskiLewandowskiFamulakEdmundssonGradeckiBrzozowskiTomczykMisiak

Manager: P. Plewnia

60'▲D. Hanc←▼R. Mandrysz

60'▲S. Lewkot←▼J. Kuzdra

70'▲A. Szczutowski←▼P. Mucha

70'▲M. Ozimek←▼B. Biel

86'▲A. Zarówny←▼M. Bougaidis

Chrobry Głogów substitutes

HancLewkotSzczutowskiOzimekZarównySkowronekTupajArndtMarcinkowski

I Liga: Wisla Plock 2–1 Chrobry Głogów

Wisla Plock beat Chrobry Głogów 2-1 in I Liga on August 3, 2024.

Goals: Ł. Sekulski (29' pen, 49'), P. Szarek (77').

The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Płock.

Wisla Plock vs Chrobry Głogów — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

I Liga: Wisla Plock 2–1 Chrobry Głogów