Wisla Plock vs Arka Gdynia — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Wisla Plock46%
Arka Gdynia30%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wisla Plock creates 30% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 10 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes58
- No42
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wisla Plock ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wisla Plock at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches
Arka Gdynia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wisla Plock attack 1.56 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66
Arka Gdynia attack 1.13 + Wisla Plock defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Wisla Plock at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Wisla Plock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Wisla Plock substitutes
Arka Gdynia substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Radomiak Radom
Legia Warszawa
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
GKS Katowice
Motor Lublin
Slask WroclawWisla Plock
Wisla Krakow
Lech Poznan
Zaglebie Lubin
Cracovia Krakow
Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Wieczysta Kraków
Pogon SzczecinIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Wisla Plock host Arka Gdynia on Monday, 9 March 2026 at 18:00. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Ekstraklasa: Wisla Plock 0–3 Arka Gdynia
Arka Gdynia beat Wisla Plock 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 9, 2026.
Goals: D. Kocyla (50'), V. Gutkovskis (62'), N. Rusyn (82').
Wisla Plock controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 15.
The match was played at Orlen Stadion in Plock.