Arka Gdynia 1–0 Wisla Plock: Result & Stats

Arka Gdynia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Wisla Plock

E. D. Espiau Hernandez 48'

8/29/2025

Ekstraklasa · Round 7Stadion Miejski w Gdyni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Arka Gdynia38%

×Draw25%

Wisla Plock37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arka GdyniaExpected goals in this matchWisla Plock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.39

Arka Gdynia

1.42

Wisla Plock

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

1.59

creates per match

1.33

1.44

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Arka Gdynia

1.59

Wisla Plock

1.33

allows per match

Arka Gdynia

1.44

Wisla Plock

1.25

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Arka Gdynia-0.26scores less

Wisla Plock-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arka Gdynia ↓

Wisla Plock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Arka Gdynia or draw

63%

Arka Gdynia or Wisla Plock

75%

Draw or Wisla Plock

62%

Winning margin

Arka Gdynia wins by 2+

18%

Wisla Plock wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arka Gdynia 1+ goals

76%

Arka Gdynia 2+ goals

41%

Arka Gdynia 3+ goals

17%

Wisla Plock 1+ goals

75%

Wisla Plock 2+ goals

40%

Wisla Plock 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Arka Gdynia (draw refunded)

51%

Wisla Plock (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arka Gdynia at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Wisla Plock away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arka Gdynia attack 1.59 + Wisla Plock defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Wisla Plock attack 1.33 + Arka Gdynia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Arka Gdynia scores more

38%

level

25%

Wisla Plock scores more

37%

Arka Gdynia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arka Gdynia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

M. Navarro

Arka Gdynia · M

7.9

Match Events

48'

E. D. Espiau Hernandez↳ M. Navarro

53'

J. Jimenez← M. Djalo

62'

Q. Lecoeuche← B. Nastic

62'

I. Salvador← L. Sekulski

69'

T. Gaprindashvili← J. Oliveira

69'

H. Vitalucci← S. Kerk

71'

F. Hiszpanski← K. Custovic

71'

G. Niarchos← W. Nowak

76'

Iban Salvador

76'

Jime

78'

Julien Celestine

80'

Percan← E. D. Espiau Hernandez

90+2'

M. Predenkiewicz←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArkaWisla

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots18

0Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots18

2On Target4

5Off Target10

1Blocked4

3Inside Box9

5Outside Box9

Passing

51%Possession49%

432Total Passes401

351Accurate Passes320

81%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1