Wisla Krakow 0–1 Tychy 71: Result & Stats | I Liga

Wisla Krakow

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tychy 71

2/23/2024

I Liga · Round 21Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisla Krakow51%

×Draw24%

Tychy 7125%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisla KrakowExpected goals in this matchTychy 71

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.16

Wisla Krakow

1.75

Tychy 71

1.16

Wisla Krakow creates 51% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 136 away

2.00

creates per match

1.22

1.09

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wisla Krakow

2.00

Tychy 71

1.22

allows per match

Wisla Krakow

1.09

Tychy 71

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Tychy 71 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw

75%

Wisla Krakow or Tychy 71

76%

Draw or Tychy 71

49%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

28%

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

83%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

52%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

25%

Tychy 71 1+ goals

69%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

32%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

67%

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Tychy 71 away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.50 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Tychy 71 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Tychy 71 attack 1.22 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more

51%

level

24%

Tychy 71 scores more

25%

Wisla Krakow at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff