Tychy 71 0–2 Wisla Krakow: Result & Stats | I Liga

Tychy 71

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wisla Krakow

5/9/2025

I Liga · Round 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Tychy 7134%

×Draw25%

Wisla Krakow41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tychy 71Expected goals in this matchWisla Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.50

Tychy 71

1.33

Wisla Krakow

1.50

Wisla Krakow creates 13% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 67 away

1.50

creates per match

1.78

1.22

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Tychy 71

1.50

Wisla Krakow

1.78

allows per match

Tychy 71

1.22

Wisla Krakow

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tychy 71+0.00on par

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tychy 71 ↓

Wisla Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tychy 71 or draw

59%

Tychy 71 or Wisla Krakow

75%

Draw or Wisla Krakow

66%

Winning margin

Tychy 71 wins by 2+

15%

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Tychy 71 1+ goals

74%

Tychy 71 2+ goals

38%

Tychy 71 3+ goals

15%

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

78%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

44%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Tychy 71 (draw refunded)

45%

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tychy 71 at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.22 · 136 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tychy 71 attack 1.50 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Tychy 71 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Tychy 71 scores more

34%

level

25%

Wisla Krakow scores more

41%

Wisla Krakow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff