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Wisla Krakow vs Stal Rzeszów — I Liga 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
10/26/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 14Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Wisla Krakow54%
×Draw23%
Stal Rzeszów23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.87
Stal Rzeszów
1.14

Wisla Krakow creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
2.00
Stal Rzeszów
1.19

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.09
Stal Rzeszów
1.74

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Stal Rzeszów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
77%
Wisla Krakow or Stal Rzeszów
77%
Draw or Stal Rzeszów
46%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
31%
Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
85%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
56%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
29%
Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
68%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
32%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
70%
Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Stal Rzeszów away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.74 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.87

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.19 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
54%
level
23%
Stal Rzeszów scores more
23%

Wisla Krakow at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wisla Krakow 2–1 Stal Rzeszów

Wisla Krakow beat Stal Rzeszów 2-1 in I Liga on October 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana.