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Stal Rzeszów vs Wisla Krakow — I Liga 2018

Stal Rzeszów
Stal Rzeszów
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
5/25/2025I LigaI Liga · Round 34Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Stal Rzeszów34%
×Draw24%
Wisla Krakow42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Rzeszów
1.46
Wisla Krakow
1.66

Wisla Krakow creates 14% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 67 away

creates per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.75
Wisla Krakow
1.78

allows per match

Stal Rzeszów
1.54
Wisla Krakow
1.16

finishing

Stal Rzeszów+0.00on par
Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Rzeszów ↓

Wisla Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Stal Rzeszów or draw
58%
Stal Rzeszów or Wisla Krakow
76%
Draw or Wisla Krakow
66%

Winning margin

Stal Rzeszów wins by 2+
16%
Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Stal Rzeszów 1+ goals
77%
Stal Rzeszów 2+ goals
43%
Stal Rzeszów 3+ goals
18%
Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
81%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
49%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Stal Rzeszów (draw refunded)
44%
Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Rzeszów at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.54 · 68 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Rzeszów attack 1.75 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Stal Rzeszów defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Stal Rzeszów scores more
34%
level
24%
Wisla Krakow scores more
42%

Wisla Krakow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Stal Rzeszów 0–3 Wisla Krakow

Wisla Krakow beat Stal Rzeszów 3-0 in I Liga on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.