Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wisla Krakow vs Odra Opole — I Liga 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
5 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
9/27/2024I LigaI Liga · Round 11Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisla Krakow54%
×Draw23%
Odra Opole23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.80
Odra Opole
1.08

Wisla Krakow creates 67% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 138 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
2.00
Odra Opole
1.08

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.09
Odra Opole
1.60

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Odra Opole+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Odra Opole →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
77%
Wisla Krakow or Odra Opole
77%
Draw or Odra Opole
46%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
30%
Odra Opole wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
83%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
54%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
27%
Odra Opole 1+ goals
66%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
29%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
70%
Odra Opole (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Odra Opole away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.60 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Odra Opole defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Odra Opole attack 1.08 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
54%
level
23%
Odra Opole scores more
23%

Wisla Krakow at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wisla Krakow 5–0 Odra Opole

Wisla Krakow beat Odra Opole 5-0 in I Liga on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kraków.