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Odra Opole vs Wisla Krakow — I Liga 2018

Odra Opole
Odra Opole
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
3/21/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 26Itaka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Odra Opole31%
×Draw26%
Wisla Krakow43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Opole
1.19
Wisla Krakow
1.45

Wisla Krakow creates 22% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 67 away

creates per match

Odra Opole
1.21
Wisla Krakow
1.78

allows per match

Odra Opole
1.11
Wisla Krakow
1.16

finishing

Odra Opole+0.00on par
Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Opole ↓

Wisla Krakow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Odra Opole or draw
57%
Odra Opole or Wisla Krakow
74%
Draw or Wisla Krakow
69%

Winning margin

Odra Opole wins by 2+
13%
Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odra Opole 1+ goals
70%
Odra Opole 2+ goals
33%
Odra Opole 3+ goals
12%
Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
77%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
42%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Odra Opole (draw refunded)
42%
Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Opole at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.11 · 136 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Opole attack 1.21 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Odra Opole defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Odra Opole scores more
31%
level
26%
Wisla Krakow scores more
43%

Wisla Krakow at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Odra Opole 1–1 Wisla Krakow

Odra Opole and Wisla Krakow drew 1-1 in I Liga on March 21, 2026.

The match was played at Itaka Arena in Opole.