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Wisla Krakow vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2018

Wisla Krakow
Wisla Krakow
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
12/10/2023I LigaI Liga · Round 18Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisla Krakow50%
×Draw24%
Górnik Łęczna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisla Krakow
1.67
Górnik Łęczna
1.11

Wisla Krakow creates 50% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 86 away

creates per match

Wisla Krakow
2.00
Górnik Łęczna
1.13

allows per match

Wisla Krakow
1.09
Górnik Łęczna
1.33

finishing

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par
Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisla Krakow ↓

Górnik Łęczna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wisla Krakow or draw
75%
Wisla Krakow or Górnik Łęczna
76%
Draw or Górnik Łęczna
50%

Winning margin

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+
27%
Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals
81%
Wisla Krakow 2+ goals
50%
Wisla Krakow 3+ goals
23%
Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals
67%
Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals
30%
Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)
67%
Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisla Krakow at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.09 · 70 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisla Krakow attack 2.00 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wisla Krakow scores more
50%
level
24%
Górnik Łęczna scores more
25%

Wisla Krakow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Wisla Krakow 4–0 Górnik Łęczna

Wisla Krakow beat Górnik Łęczna 4-0 in I Liga on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana in Kraków.