Górnik Łęczna 1–2 Wisla Krakow: Result & Stats

Górnik Łęczna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wisla Krakow

9/21/2025

I Liga · Round 10Bogdanka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Górnik Łęczna33%

×Draw26%

Wisla Krakow42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik ŁęcznaExpected goals in this matchWisla Krakow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.45

Górnik Łęczna

1.25

Wisla Krakow

1.45

Wisla Krakow creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 67 away

1.35

creates per match

1.78

1.11

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.35

Wisla Krakow

1.78

allows per match

Górnik Łęczna

1.11

Wisla Krakow

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Wisla Krakow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Łęczna ↓

Wisla Krakow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Górnik Łęczna or draw

58%

Górnik Łęczna or Wisla Krakow

74%

Draw or Wisla Krakow

67%

Winning margin

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

14%

Wisla Krakow wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

71%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

36%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

13%

Wisla Krakow 1+ goals

77%

Wisla Krakow 2+ goals

42%

Wisla Krakow 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

44%

Wisla Krakow (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Łęczna at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 85 matches

Wisla Krakow away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.16 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.35 + Wisla Krakow defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Wisla Krakow attack 1.78 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Górnik Łęczna scores more

33%

level

26%

Wisla Krakow scores more

42%

Wisla Krakow at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wisla Krakow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff