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Donegal Celtic vs Banbridge Town — League #561 2026

Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
FT
1 – 2
Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
4/10/2018League #561League #561 · Round 18Donegal Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Donegal Celtic61%
×Draw20%
Banbridge Town19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Donegal Celtic
2.23
Banbridge Town
1.16

Donegal Celtic creates 92% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Donegal Celtic
1.00
Banbridge Town
1.31

allows per match

Donegal Celtic
1.00
Banbridge Town
3.46

finishing

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par
Banbridge Town+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donegal Celtic ↓

Banbridge Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Donegal Celtic or draw
81%
Donegal Celtic or Banbridge Town
80%
Draw or Banbridge Town
39%

Winning margin

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
39%
Banbridge Town wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
89%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
65%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
38%
Banbridge Town 1+ goals
69%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
32%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
76%
Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donegal Celtic at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Banbridge Town away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donegal Celtic attack 1.00 + Banbridge Town defence 3.46 → ÷2 → 2.23

Banbridge Town attack 1.31 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Donegal Celtic scores more
61%
level
20%
Banbridge Town scores more
19%

Donegal Celtic at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Donegal Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Donegal Celtic vs Banbridge Town

Banbridge Town beat Donegal Celtic 2-1 in League #561 on April 10, 2018.

The match was played at Donegal Celtic Park in Belfast.