Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Banbridge Town vs Donegal Celtic — Premier Intermediate League 2017

Banbridge Town
Banbridge Town
FT
2 – 2
Donegal Celtic
Donegal Celtic
9/2/2017Premier Intermediate LeaguePremier Intermediate League · Round 4Crystal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Banbridge Town48%
×Draw23%
Donegal Celtic29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Banbridge Town
1.78
Donegal Celtic
1.35

Banbridge Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Banbridge Town
1.90
Donegal Celtic
1.00

allows per match

Banbridge Town
1.70
Donegal Celtic
1.67

finishing

Banbridge Town+0.00on par
Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Banbridge Town ↓

Donegal Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Banbridge Town or draw
71%
Banbridge Town or Donegal Celtic
77%
Draw or Donegal Celtic
52%

Winning margin

Banbridge Town wins by 2+
26%
Donegal Celtic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Banbridge Town 1+ goals
83%
Banbridge Town 2+ goals
53%
Banbridge Town 3+ goals
26%
Donegal Celtic 1+ goals
74%
Donegal Celtic 2+ goals
39%
Donegal Celtic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Banbridge Town (draw refunded)
62%
Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Banbridge Town at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Banbridge Town attack 1.90 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.78

Donegal Celtic attack 1.00 + Banbridge Town defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Banbridge Town scores more
48%
level
23%
Donegal Celtic scores more
29%

Banbridge Town at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Banbridge Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Banbridge Town vs Donegal Celtic

Banbridge Town and Donegal Celtic drew 2-2 in Premier Intermediate League on September 2, 2017.

The match was played at Crystal Park in Banbridge.