Loughgall 3–5 Ballyclare Comrades: Result & Stats

Loughgall

FT

3 – 5

Ballyclare Comrades

1/26/2019

Championship · Relegation Round - 1Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Loughgall36%

×Draw21%

Ballyclare Comrades44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchBallyclare Comrades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

2.08

Loughgall

1.87

Ballyclare Comrades

2.08

Ballyclare Comrades creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.60

creates per match

2.57

1.60

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Loughgall

1.60

Ballyclare Comrades

2.57

allows per match

Loughgall

1.60

Ballyclare Comrades

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

56%

Loughgall or Ballyclare Comrades

79%

Draw or Ballyclare Comrades

64%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

18%

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

85%

Loughgall 2+ goals

56%

Loughgall 3+ goals

29%

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

87%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

61%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

45%

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 2.57, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.60 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.87

Ballyclare Comrades attack 2.57 + Loughgall defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Loughgall scores more

36%

level

21%

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

44%

Ballyclare Comrades at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ballyclare Comrades will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff