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Portstewart vs Bangor — League #561 2026

Portstewart
Portstewart
FT
1 – 0
Bangor
Bangor
2/22/2020League #561League #561 · Round 15Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Portstewart32%
×Draw25%
Bangor43%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portstewart
1.29
Bangor
1.53

Bangor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 13 away

creates per match

Portstewart
1.50
Bangor
1.85

allows per match

Portstewart
1.21
Bangor
1.08

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw
57%
Portstewart or Bangor
75%
Draw or Bangor
68%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+
14%
Bangor wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals
72%
Portstewart 2+ goals
37%
Portstewart 3+ goals
14%
Bangor 1+ goals
78%
Bangor 2+ goals
45%
Bangor 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)
43%
Bangor (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.50 + Bangor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bangor attack 1.85 + Portstewart defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Portstewart scores more
32%
level
25%
Bangor scores more
43%

Bangor at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portstewart vs Bangor

Portstewart beat Bangor 1-0 in League #561 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Seahaven in Portstewart.