Portstewart 0–1 Bangor: Result & Stats

Portstewart

FT

0 – 1

Bangor

9/18/2021

League #561 · Round 5Seahaven

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Portstewart27%

×Draw26%

Bangor47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortstewartExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.48

Portstewart

1.07

Bangor

1.48

Bangor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

1.41

creates per match

1.73

1.24

allows per match

0.73

creates per match

Portstewart

1.41

Bangor

1.73

allows per match

Portstewart

1.24

Bangor

0.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portstewart+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portstewart ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Portstewart or draw

53%

Portstewart or Bangor

74%

Draw or Bangor

73%

Winning margin

Portstewart wins by 2+

10%

Bangor wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Portstewart 1+ goals

66%

Portstewart 2+ goals

29%

Portstewart 3+ goals

9%

Bangor 1+ goals

77%

Bangor 2+ goals

43%

Bangor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Portstewart (draw refunded)

37%

Bangor (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portstewart at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Bangor away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portstewart attack 1.41 + Bangor defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bangor attack 1.73 + Portstewart defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portstewart scores more

27%

level

26%

Bangor scores more

47%

Bangor at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff