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Wisłoka Dębica vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
4/6/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica46%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.71
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.33

Wisłoka Dębica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 70 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
70%
Wisłoka Dębica or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
54%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
25%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
82%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
51%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
74%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
38%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
61%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
46%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
30%

Wisłoka Dębica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisłoka Dębica 1–1 Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Wisłoka Dębica and Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.