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Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
6/11/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski34%
×Draw24%
Wisłoka Dębica41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.40
Wisłoka Dębica
1.56

Wisłoka Dębica creates 11% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 104 away

creates per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.34
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.62
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or draw
59%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski or Wisłoka Dębica
76%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
66%

Winning margin

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
16%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
75%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
41%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
17%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
79%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
46%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
45%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.62 · 71 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.34 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.40

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
34%
level
24%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
41%

Wisłoka Dębica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski vs Wisłoka Dębica

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Wisłoka Dębica 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Radzyń Podlaski.