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Wisłoka Dębica vs Lewart — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
1 – 1
Lewart
Lewart
11/21/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica50%
×Draw24%
Lewart26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.71
Lewart
1.16

Wisłoka Dębica creates 47% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Lewart
0.95

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Lewart
1.89

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Lewart+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Lewart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
74%
Wisłoka Dębica or Lewart
76%
Draw or Lewart
50%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
27%
Lewart wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
82%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
51%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
24%
Lewart 1+ goals
69%
Lewart 2+ goals
32%
Lewart 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
66%
Lewart (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Lewart away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Lewart defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Lewart attack 0.95 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
50%
level
24%
Lewart scores more
26%

Wisłoka Dębica at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisłoka Dębica 1–1 Lewart

Wisłoka Dębica and Lewart drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 21, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.