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Lewart vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Lewart
Lewart
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
10/19/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Lewart31%
×Draw25%
Wisłoka Dębica44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lewart
1.30
Wisłoka Dębica
1.59

Wisłoka Dębica creates 22% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lewart
1.14
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Lewart
1.70
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Lewart+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lewart ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lewart or draw
56%
Lewart or Wisłoka Dębica
75%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
69%

Winning margin

Lewart wins by 2+
13%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Lewart 1+ goals
73%
Lewart 2+ goals
37%
Lewart 3+ goals
14%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
80%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
47%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Lewart (draw refunded)
41%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lewart at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lewart attack 1.14 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.30

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Lewart defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lewart scores more
31%
level
25%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
44%

Wisłoka Dębica at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lewart vs Wisłoka Dębica

Wisłoka Dębica beat Lewart 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Lubartowie in Lubartów.