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Wisłoka Dębica vs Korona Rzeszow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
6/4/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 32Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica51%
×Draw23%
Korona Rzeszow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.88
Korona Rzeszow
1.30

Wisłoka Dębica creates 45% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Korona Rzeszow
1.24

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Korona Rzeszow
2.24

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Korona Rzeszow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
73%
Wisłoka Dębica or Korona Rzeszow
77%
Draw or Korona Rzeszow
49%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
29%
Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
85%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
56%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
29%
Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
73%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
37%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
66%
Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.88

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
51%
level
23%
Korona Rzeszow scores more
27%

Wisłoka Dębica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisłoka Dębica vs Korona Rzeszow

Wisłoka Dębica beat Korona Rzeszow 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.