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Korona Rzeszow vs Wisłoka Dębica — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
FT
2 – 3
Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
10/30/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Crasnovia Krasne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow29%
×Draw23%
Wisłoka Dębica48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Rzeszow
1.35
Wisłoka Dębica
1.81

Wisłoka Dębica creates 34% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 104 away

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow
1.24
Wisłoka Dębica
1.49

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow
2.12
Wisłoka Dębica
1.46

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par
Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw
52%
Korona Rzeszow or Wisłoka Dębica
77%
Draw or Wisłoka Dębica
71%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
12%
Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
74%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
39%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
15%
Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
84%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
54%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
37%
Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more
29%
level
23%
Wisłoka Dębica scores more
48%

Wisłoka Dębica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Rzeszow vs Wisłoka Dębica

Wisłoka Dębica beat Korona Rzeszow 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Crasnovia Krasne in Krasne.