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Wisła Sandomierz vs Unia Tarnow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Unia Tarnow
Unia Tarnow
9/11/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz45%
×Draw23%
Unia Tarnow32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.79
Unia Tarnow
1.46

Wisła Sandomierz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Unia Tarnow
1.16

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Unia Tarnow
2.31

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Unia Tarnow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
68%
Wisła Sandomierz or Unia Tarnow
77%
Draw or Unia Tarnow
55%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
24%
Unia Tarnow wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
83%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
53%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
26%
Unia Tarnow 1+ goals
77%
Unia Tarnow 2+ goals
43%
Unia Tarnow 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
59%
Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.79

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
45%
level
23%
Unia Tarnow scores more
32%

Wisła Sandomierz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 3–4 Unia Tarnow

Unia Tarnow beat Wisła Sandomierz 4-3 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.