Wisła Sandomierz 1–2 Unia Tarnow: Result & Stats

Wisła Sandomierz

FT

1 – 2

Unia Tarnow

11/14/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz45%

×Draw23%

Unia Tarnow32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła SandomierzExpected goals in this matchUnia Tarnow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.46

Wisła Sandomierz

1.79

Unia Tarnow

1.46

Wisła Sandomierz creates 23% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

1.28

creates per match

1.16

1.77

allows per match

2.31

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz

1.28

Unia Tarnow

1.16

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz

1.77

Unia Tarnow

2.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Unia Tarnow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Unia Tarnow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw

68%

Wisła Sandomierz or Unia Tarnow

77%

Draw or Unia Tarnow

55%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+

24%

Unia Tarnow wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals

83%

Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals

53%

Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals

26%

Unia Tarnow 1+ goals

77%

Unia Tarnow 2+ goals

43%

Unia Tarnow 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)

59%

Unia Tarnow (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Unia Tarnow away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.31 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Unia Tarnow defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 1.79

Unia Tarnow attack 1.16 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more

45%

level

23%

Unia Tarnow scores more

32%

Wisła Sandomierz at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff