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Wisła Sandomierz vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
1 – 0
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
A. Kajpust 65'
4/10/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz35%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.32
Stal Kraśnik
1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 36 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
60%
Wisła Sandomierz or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
65%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
15%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
73%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
38%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
15%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
76%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
42%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
47%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
35%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
40%

Stal Kraśnik at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
A. Kajpust

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 1–0 Stal Kraśnik

Wisła Sandomierz beat Stal Kraśnik 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 10, 2021.

Goals: A. Kajpust (65').

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.