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Stal Kraśnik vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
FT
3 – 4
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
8/30/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 7Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Kraśnik50%
×Draw22%
Wisła Sandomierz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Kraśnik
1.91
Wisła Sandomierz
1.38

Stal Kraśnik creates 38% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

creates per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.46
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Stal Kraśnik
1.57
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Kraśnik ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Stal Kraśnik or draw
72%
Stal Kraśnik or Wisła Sandomierz
78%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
50%

Winning margin

Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
28%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
85%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
57%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
30%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
40%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
64%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Kraśnik at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.46 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Stal Kraśnik scores more
50%
level
22%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
28%

Stal Kraśnik at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Stal Kraśnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Stal Kraśnik vs Wisła Sandomierz

Wisła Sandomierz beat Stal Kraśnik 4-3 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Kraśnik.