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Wisła Sandomierz vs Sokół Sieniawa — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
5/15/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz41%
×Draw23%
Sokół Sieniawa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.67
Sokół Sieniawa
1.52

Wisła Sandomierz creates 10% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Sokół Sieniawa
1.27

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Sokół Sieniawa
2.07

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Sokół Sieniawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
65%
Wisła Sandomierz or Sokół Sieniawa
77%
Draw or Sokół Sieniawa
59%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
21%
Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
81%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
50%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
23%
Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
54%
Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Sokół Sieniawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.07 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.27 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
41%
level
23%
Sokół Sieniawa scores more
35%

Wisła Sandomierz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 1–1 Sokół Sieniawa

Wisła Sandomierz and Sokół Sieniawa drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.