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Sokół Sieniawa vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
2 – 0
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
4/24/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 31Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa49%
×Draw22%
Wisła Sandomierz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.91
Wisła Sandomierz
1.41

Sokół Sieniawa creates 35% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
71%
Sokół Sieniawa or Wisła Sandomierz
78%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
51%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
28%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
85%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
57%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
30%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
76%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
41%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
63%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
49%
level
22%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
29%

Sokół Sieniawa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Sokół Sieniawa 2–0 Wisła Sandomierz

Sokół Sieniawa beat Wisła Sandomierz 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.