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Wisła Sandomierz vs KSZO 1929 — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
0 – 4
KSZO 1929
KSZO 1929
9/17/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 8Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz31%
×Draw25%
KSZO 192944%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
KSZO 1929
1.56

KSZO 1929 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 105 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
KSZO 1929
1.36

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
KSZO 1929
1.28

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

KSZO 1929 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
56%
Wisła Sandomierz or KSZO 1929
75%
Draw or KSZO 1929
69%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
13%
KSZO 1929 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
72%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
37%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
14%
KSZO 1929 1+ goals
79%
KSZO 1929 2+ goals
46%
KSZO 1929 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
42%
KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

KSZO 1929 away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.28 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.28

KSZO 1929 attack 1.36 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
31%
level
25%
KSZO 1929 scores more
44%

KSZO 1929 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 0–4 KSZO 1929

KSZO 1929 beat Wisła Sandomierz 4-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.