KSZO 1929 4–2 Wisła Sandomierz: Result & Stats

KSZO 1929

FT

4 – 2

Wisła Sandomierz

4/22/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 25Miejski Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

KSZO 192960%

×Draw21%

Wisła Sandomierz19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KSZO 1929Expected goals in this matchWisła Sandomierz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.10

KSZO 1929

2.08

Wisła Sandomierz

1.10

KSZO 1929 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 54 away

1.81

creates per match

1.19

1.01

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

KSZO 1929

1.81

Wisła Sandomierz

1.19

allows per match

KSZO 1929

1.01

Wisła Sandomierz

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

KSZO 1929+0.00on par

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KSZO 1929 ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

KSZO 1929 or draw

81%

KSZO 1929 or Wisła Sandomierz

79%

Draw or Wisła Sandomierz

40%

Winning margin

KSZO 1929 wins by 2+

36%

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

KSZO 1929 1+ goals

87%

KSZO 1929 2+ goals

61%

KSZO 1929 3+ goals

34%

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals

67%

Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals

30%

Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

KSZO 1929 (draw refunded)

75%

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KSZO 1929 at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.01 · 104 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KSZO 1929 attack 1.81 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.08

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + KSZO 1929 defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

KSZO 1929 scores more

60%

level

21%

Wisła Sandomierz scores more

19%

KSZO 1929 at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "KSZO 1929 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff