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Wisła Sandomierz vs Korona Rzeszow — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
FT
1 – 1
Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
11/20/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 18Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz44%
×Draw23%
Korona Rzeszow33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Sandomierz
1.76
Korona Rzeszow
1.50

Wisła Sandomierz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.28
Korona Rzeszow
1.24

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz
1.77
Korona Rzeszow
2.24

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par
Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Korona Rzeszow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw
67%
Wisła Sandomierz or Korona Rzeszow
77%
Draw or Korona Rzeszow
56%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
23%
Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
83%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
52%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
26%
Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
78%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
44%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
57%
Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Korona Rzeszow away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.76

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more
44%
level
23%
Korona Rzeszow scores more
33%

Wisła Sandomierz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisła Sandomierz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wisła Sandomierz 1–1 Korona Rzeszow

Wisła Sandomierz and Korona Rzeszow drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz in Sandomierz.