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Korona Rzeszow vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Rzeszow
Korona Rzeszow
FT
5 – 0
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
8/8/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 1Stadion Stal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Korona Rzeszow41%
×Draw23%
Wisła Sandomierz36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Rzeszow
1.79
Wisła Sandomierz
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 54 away

creates per match

Korona Rzeszow
1.24
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Korona Rzeszow
2.12
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Korona Rzeszow+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Rzeszow ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Korona Rzeszow or draw
64%
Korona Rzeszow or Wisła Sandomierz
77%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
59%

Winning margin

Korona Rzeszow wins by 2+
22%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Korona Rzeszow 1+ goals
83%
Korona Rzeszow 2+ goals
53%
Korona Rzeszow 3+ goals
26%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
81%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
49%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Korona Rzeszow (draw refunded)
53%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Rzeszow at home — creates 1.24, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Rzeszow attack 1.24 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.79

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Korona Rzeszow defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Korona Rzeszow scores more
41%
level
23%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
36%

Korona Rzeszow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Korona Rzeszow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Rzeszow vs Wisła Sandomierz

Korona Rzeszow beat Wisła Sandomierz 5-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Stal in Rzeszów.