Wisła Sandomierz 0–4 Avia Świdnik: Result & Stats

Wisła Sandomierz

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Avia Świdnik

6/17/2023

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Miejski Stadion Sportowy Sandomierz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Sandomierz25%

×Draw23%

Avia Świdnik52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła SandomierzExpected goals in this matchAvia Świdnik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.83

Wisła Sandomierz

1.20

Avia Świdnik

1.83

Avia Świdnik creates 53% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 104 away

1.28

creates per match

1.89

1.77

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Wisła Sandomierz

1.28

Avia Świdnik

1.89

allows per match

Wisła Sandomierz

1.77

Avia Świdnik

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Sandomierz ↓

Avia Świdnik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wisła Sandomierz or draw

48%

Wisła Sandomierz or Avia Świdnik

77%

Draw or Avia Świdnik

75%

Winning margin

Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+

10%

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals

70%

Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals

34%

Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals

12%

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals

84%

Avia Świdnik 2+ goals

54%

Avia Świdnik 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)

32%

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Sandomierz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.77 · 53 matches

Avia Świdnik away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.12 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.28 + Avia Świdnik defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.20

Avia Świdnik attack 1.89 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Wisła Sandomierz scores more

25%

level

23%

Avia Świdnik scores more

52%

Avia Świdnik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff