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Avia Świdnik vs Wisła Sandomierz — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Avia Świdnik
Avia Świdnik
FT
3 – 0
Wisła Sandomierz
Wisła Sandomierz
11/19/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Świdnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Avia Świdnik64%
×Draw19%
Wisła Sandomierz17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avia Świdnik
2.29
Wisła Sandomierz
1.08

Avia Świdnik creates 112% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 54 away

creates per match

Avia Świdnik
2.24
Wisła Sandomierz
1.19

allows per match

Avia Świdnik
0.98
Wisła Sandomierz
2.35

finishing

Avia Świdnik+0.00on par
Wisła Sandomierz+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avia Świdnik ↓

Wisła Sandomierz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Avia Świdnik or draw
83%
Avia Świdnik or Wisła Sandomierz
81%
Draw or Wisła Sandomierz
36%

Winning margin

Avia Świdnik wins by 2+
41%
Wisła Sandomierz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Avia Świdnik 1+ goals
90%
Avia Świdnik 2+ goals
66%
Avia Świdnik 3+ goals
40%
Wisła Sandomierz 1+ goals
66%
Wisła Sandomierz 2+ goals
29%
Wisła Sandomierz 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Avia Świdnik (draw refunded)
79%
Wisła Sandomierz (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avia Świdnik at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.98 · 105 matches

Wisła Sandomierz away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.35 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avia Świdnik attack 2.24 + Wisła Sandomierz defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wisła Sandomierz attack 1.19 + Avia Świdnik defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Avia Świdnik scores more
64%
level
19%
Wisła Sandomierz scores more
17%

Avia Świdnik at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Avia Świdnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Avia Świdnik 3–0 Wisła Sandomierz

Avia Świdnik beat Wisła Sandomierz 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on November 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Świdnik in Świdnik.