Wisła Puławy 1–3 Stal Stalowa Wola: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

1 – 3

Stal Stalowa Wola

5/30/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 38Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wisła Puławy53%

×Draw22%

Stal Stalowa Wola25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.32

Wisła Puławy

1.98

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.32

Wisła Puławy creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 54 away

2.90

creates per match

1.74

0.90

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

2.90

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.74

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

0.90

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

75%

Wisła Puławy or Stal Stalowa Wola

78%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

47%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

30%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

86%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

59%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

31%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

73%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

38%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

67%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 2.90 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.98

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

53%

level

22%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

25%

Wisła Puławy at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff