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Stal Stalowa Wola vs Wisła Puławy — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Stal Stalowa Wola
Stal Stalowa Wola
FT
0 – 3
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola32%
×Draw25%
Wisła Puławy43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.27
Wisła Puławy
1.53

Wisła Puławy creates 20% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 20 away

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
1.89
Wisła Puławy
2.10

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola
0.96
Wisła Puławy
0.65

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw
57%
Stal Stalowa Wola or Wisła Puławy
75%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
68%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+
13%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals
72%
Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals
36%
Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals
14%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
78%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
45%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)
42%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.89 + Wisła Puławy defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wisła Puławy attack 2.10 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more
32%
level
25%
Wisła Puławy scores more
43%

Wisła Puławy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Stal Stalowa Wola 0–3 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Stal Stalowa Wola 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.