Wisła Puławy 1–3 Polonia Bytom: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Polonia Bytom

9/29/2024

II Liga - East · Round 11Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Wisła Puławy40%

×Draw26%

Polonia Bytom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.27

Wisła Puławy

1.38

Polonia Bytom

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 35 away

1.49

creates per match

1.26

1.29

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

1.49

Polonia Bytom

1.26

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.29

Polonia Bytom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

66%

Wisła Puławy or Polonia Bytom

74%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

60%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

18%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

75%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

40%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

16%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

72%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

36%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

53%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.38

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

40%

level

26%

Polonia Bytom scores more

34%

Wisła Puławy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff