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Polonia Bytom vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
4/26/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom55%
×Draw21%
Wisła Puławy24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.10
Wisła Puławy
1.32

Polonia Bytom creates 59% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
76%
Polonia Bytom or Wisła Puławy
79%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
45%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
33%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
88%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
62%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
35%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
73%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
38%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
70%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.10

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
55%
level
21%
Wisła Puławy scores more
24%

Polonia Bytom at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Wisła Puławy

Polonia Bytom beat Wisła Puławy 4-0 in II Liga - East on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.