Wisła Puławy 0–3 Pogoń Siedlce: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Pogoń Siedlce

5/25/2024

II Liga - East · Round 34Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wisła Puławy41%

×Draw25%

Pogoń Siedlce35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchPogoń Siedlce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.41

Wisła Puławy

1.54

Pogoń Siedlce

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 86 away

1.49

creates per match

1.52

1.29

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

1.49

Pogoń Siedlce

1.52

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.29

Pogoń Siedlce

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

65%

Wisła Puławy or Pogoń Siedlce

75%

Draw or Pogoń Siedlce

59%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

20%

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

79%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

45%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

20%

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals

76%

Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals

41%

Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

54%

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.58 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.52 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

41%

level

25%

Pogoń Siedlce scores more

35%

Wisła Puławy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff