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Pogoń Siedlce vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
11/12/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 17Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce42%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.66
Wisła Puławy
1.46

Pogoń Siedlce creates 14% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 70 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.48
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.42
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
66%
Pogoń Siedlce or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
58%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
22%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
81%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
49%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
23%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
77%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
43%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
56%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.66

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
42%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
34%

Pogoń Siedlce at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pogoń Siedlce vs Wisła Puławy

Pogoń Siedlce and Wisła Puławy drew 2-2 in II Liga - East on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.