Wisła Puławy 2–1 Podbeskidzie: Result & Stats

Wisła Puławy

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Podbeskidzie

B. Guzdek 57'

K. Kargulewicz 45+1'

M. Biernat 36'

8/31/2024

II Liga - East · Round 7Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Wisła Puławy38%

×Draw25%

Podbeskidzie37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wisła PuławyExpected goals in this matchPodbeskidzie

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.41

Wisła Puławy

1.42

Podbeskidzie

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 34 away

1.49

creates per match

1.53

1.29

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Wisła Puławy

1.49

Podbeskidzie

1.53

allows per match

Wisła Puławy

1.29

Podbeskidzie

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Podbeskidzie →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw

63%

Wisła Puławy or Podbeskidzie

75%

Draw or Podbeskidzie

62%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

18%

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

76%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

41%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

17%

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

76%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

41%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

50%

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Podbeskidzie away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Podbeskidzie defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Podbeskidzie attack 1.53 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more

38%

level

25%

Podbeskidzie scores more

37%

Wisła Puławy at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

K. Kumoch

29'

M. Willman

36'

M. Biernat

45+1'

K. Kargulewicz

49'

F. Luczuk

57'

B. Guzdek

63'

K. Kargulewicz

66'

B. Bieroński← R. Zając

66'

S. Gołuch← D. Dziwniel

67'

M. Misztal← M. Bednarski

72'

M. Mrsic

72'

K. Szymanek← F. Łuczuk

82'

M. Ziółkowski← L. Rönnberg

86'

K. Piatek

87'

S. Goluch

87'

B. Guzdek

89'

S. Koziej← K. Piątek

90+3'

90+5'

J. Mwinyi← B. Guzdek

90+3'

B. Martosz← M. Willmann

Wisła

Podbeskidzie

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Guzdek

▼

Łuczuk

Manager: M. Tokarczyk

72'▲K. Szymanek←▼F. Łuczuk

89'▲S. Koziej←▼K. Piątek

90+5'▲J. Mwinyi←▼B. Guzdek

Wisła Puławy substitutes

SzymanekKoziejMwinyi

Manager: K. Brede

66'▲B. Bieroński←▼R. Zając

66'▲S. Gołuch←▼D. Dziwniel

67'▲M. Misztal←▼M. Bednarski

82'▲M. Ziółkowski←▼L. Rönnberg

90+3'▲B. Martosz←▼M. Willmann

Podbeskidzie substitutes

BierońskiGołuchMisztalZiółkowskiMartosz