Podbeskidzie 2–1 Wisła Puławy: Result & Stats

Podbeskidzie

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Wisła Puławy

3/29/2025

II Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Podbeskidzie49%

×Draw24%

Wisła Puławy27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PodbeskidzieExpected goals in this matchWisła Puławy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.23

Podbeskidzie

1.75

Wisła Puławy

1.23

Podbeskidzie creates 42% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 70 away

1.66

creates per match

1.49

0.97

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Podbeskidzie

1.66

Wisła Puławy

1.49

allows per match

Podbeskidzie

0.97

Wisła Puławy

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Podbeskidzie+0.00on par

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podbeskidzie ↓

Wisła Puławy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Podbeskidzie or draw

73%

Podbeskidzie or Wisła Puławy

76%

Draw or Wisła Puławy

51%

Winning margin

Podbeskidzie wins by 2+

27%

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Podbeskidzie 1+ goals

83%

Podbeskidzie 2+ goals

52%

Podbeskidzie 3+ goals

25%

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals

71%

Wisła Puławy 2+ goals

35%

Wisła Puławy 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Podbeskidzie (draw refunded)

65%

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podbeskidzie at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 35 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podbeskidzie attack 1.66 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Podbeskidzie defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Podbeskidzie scores more

49%

level

24%

Wisła Puławy scores more

27%

Podbeskidzie at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Podbeskidzie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff