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Wisła Puławy vs Olimpia Grudziądz — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
5/23/2025II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 32Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Wisła Puławy44%
×Draw25%
Olimpia Grudziądz31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.54
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.27

Wisła Puławy creates 21% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.26

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Olimpia Grudziądz
1.58

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
69%
Wisła Puławy or Olimpia Grudziądz
75%
Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz
56%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
22%
Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
79%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
45%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
20%
Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
72%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
36%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
58%
Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.54

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
44%
level
25%
Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
31%

Wisła Puławy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisła Puławy vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Wisła Puławy and Olimpia Grudziądz drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on May 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.