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Olimpia Grudziądz vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Olimpia Grudziądz
Olimpia Grudziądz
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
10/25/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 15Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Olimpia Grudziądz43%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.64
Wisła Puławy
1.42

Olimpia Grudziądz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.45
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Olimpia Grudziądz
1.34
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olimpia Grudziądz ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Olimpia Grudziądz or draw
67%
Olimpia Grudziądz or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
57%

Winning margin

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+
22%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals
81%
Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals
49%
Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals
23%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
76%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
41%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)
56%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olimpia Grudziądz at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 71 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.45 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more
43%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
33%

Olimpia Grudziądz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Olimpia Grudziądz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Olimpia Grudziądz 2–3 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Olimpia Grudziądz 3-2 in II Liga - East on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Bronisława Malinowskiego in Grudziądz.