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Wisła Puławy vs Motor Lublin — II Liga - East 2019

Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin
4/22/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 28Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Wisła Puławy41%
×Draw26%
Motor Lublin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisła Puławy
1.37
Motor Lublin
1.21

Wisła Puławy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 53 away

creates per match

Wisła Puławy
1.49
Motor Lublin
1.13

allows per match

Wisła Puławy
1.29
Motor Lublin
1.25

finishing

Wisła Puławy+0.00on par
Motor Lublin+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisła Puławy ↓

Motor Lublin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Wisła Puławy or draw
67%
Wisła Puławy or Motor Lublin
74%
Draw or Motor Lublin
59%

Winning margin

Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
19%
Motor Lublin wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
75%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
40%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
16%
Motor Lublin 1+ goals
70%
Motor Lublin 2+ goals
34%
Motor Lublin 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
55%
Motor Lublin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisła Puławy at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

Motor Lublin away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Motor Lublin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.37

Motor Lublin attack 1.13 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wisła Puławy scores more
41%
level
26%
Motor Lublin scores more
33%

Wisła Puławy at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Wisła Puławy 1–0 Motor Lublin

Wisła Puławy beat Motor Lublin 1-0 in II Liga - East on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Puławy.